Originally triggered by Lennar's $71,155 price cut on 2450 Rock Elm Road, but treat that house as a leverage comp, not the assumed favorite. Plot quality matters. The live Lennar pull below covers all 13 active Arbor Bluff listings and their estimated move-in/completion dates.
Use these as calm leverage, not as a rant. The best posture is “we can close quickly, but the net has to make sense versus your own recent comps and incentives.”
Put this near the top because it is the decision layer: what to actually ask for before getting lost in raw comps. Numbers are rough planning math, not a lender quote. Assumptions: 10% down, 3.5% closing costs before credits, 1.2% tax, $175/mo insurance, market-rate placeholder 6.875%, Lennar promo-style placeholder 4.5%; excludes PMI, HOA, points, and exact lender fees.
| Scenario | Deal price | Credit/package | Approx cash to close | Monthly @ market math | Monthly @ promo math |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2482 McKinley, strong realistic | $657,900 | $30K | ~$65,790 | ~$4,723 | ~$3,833 |
| 2482 McKinley, aggressive | $637,400 | $45K | ~$63,740 | ~$4,581 | ~$3,719 |
| 2660 McKinley, strong realistic | $602,300 | $30K | ~$60,230 | ~$4,338 | ~$3,524 |
| 2529 Itasca, strong realistic | $705,500 | $30K | ~$70,550 | ~$5,052 | ~$4,098 |
| 2529 Itasca, aggressive | $683,400 | $45K | ~$68,340 | ~$4,899 | ~$3,975 |
Refreshed Jun 28, 2026 17:01 UTC from Lennar pages. The date column is Lennar's listed Est. completion date, used here as the practical estimated move-in/close timing. Prices and dates can change.
| Address | Collection | Plan | Status | Est. move-in | Price | $/sf | Bed/Bath | Strategic note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2660 Aspen Drive | Landmark | McKinley | Move-in ready | May 18, 2026 | $615,470 | 225 | 4 / 3.5 | $62,400 cut; near-term close leverage |
| 2694 Aspen Drive | Landmark | Washburn | Move-in ready | Jun 2, 2026 | $735,800 | 221 | 4 / 4 | near-term close leverage |
| 2450 Rock Elm Road | Landmark | Lewis | Move-in ready | Jul 15, 2026 | $598,735 | 221 | 5 / 3 | $71,155 cut; leverage comp; plot not preferred |
| 2482 Rock Elm Road | Landmark | McKinley | Move-in ready | Aug 4, 2026 | $685,345 | 246 | 4 / 3.5 | Landmark |
| 2590 Green Ash Ave | Venture | Berkley | Move-in ready | Aug 12, 2026 | $519,697 | 207 | 4 / 2.5 | $15,808 cut |
| 2481 Rock Elm Road | Landmark | Washburn | Move-in ready | Aug 12, 2026 | $745,680 | 224 | 4 / 4 | Landmark |
| 2469 Rock Elm Road | Landmark | Sinclair | Under construction | Aug 17, 2026 | $665,920 | 269 | 4 / 2.5 | Landmark |
| 2541 Green Ash Ave | Venture | Marquette | Under construction | Sep 8, 2026 | $515,435 | 219 | 4 / 2.5 | Venture |
| 2565 Green Ash Ave | Venture | Marquette | Under construction | Sep 11, 2026 | $498,737 | 212 | 4 / 2.5 | $16,398 cut |
| 2307 Williams St | Venture | Marquette | Under construction | Sep 25, 2026 | $520,335 | 222 | 4 / 2.5 | Venture |
| 2304 Williams St | Venture | Berkley | Under construction | Oct 6, 2026 | $536,605 | 214 | 4 / 2.5 | Venture |
| 2529 Rock Elm Road | Landmark | Itasca | Under construction | Oct 13, 2026 | $734,885 | 227 | 5 / 3 | Landmark |
| 2312 Williams St | Venture | Davis | Under construction | Oct 19, 2026 | $539,735 | 212 | 5 / 3 | Venture |
| Address | Sold | Price | Sq ft | Source note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2589 Green Ash Ave | Jun 24, 2026 | $515,735 | 2352 | Homes.com |
| 2566 Green Ash Ave | Jun 24, 2026 | $533,605 | 2511 | Homes.com |
| 2577 Green Ash Ave | Jun 17, 2026 | $525,205 | 2498 | Homes.com |
| 2409 Rock Elm Rd | Apr 16, 2026 | $579,279 | 2,628 | Scott County sale record; Lennar homesite data shows Burnham plan. |
| 2364 Rock Elm Rd | 2026 | $511,000 | 2416 | Realtor + Scott County |
| 2421 Rock Elm Rd | Mar 9/12, 2026 | $549,381 | 2352 | Zillow snippet |
Homes.com and Zillow often update faster than county records. County records are cleaner for parcel facts but can lag or show bulk land/developer transfers as unqualified outliers.
Pulled from Lennar's official Arbor Bluff / Landmark / Venture pages on Jun. 28, 2026. Sorted by starting price, not current homesite/listing price. Lennar says prices/features can change.
| Rank | Floorplan | Collection | Status | Base price | Base $/sf | Base sf | Bed/Bath | Active homes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washburn | Landmark | Actively selling | $673,990 | 203 | 3,328 | 4 / 4 | 2 |
| 2 | Itasca | Landmark | Actively selling | $644,990 | 210 | 3,078 | 5 / 3 | 1 |
| 3 | McKinley | Landmark | Actively selling | $618,990 | 222 | 2,786 | 4 / 3.5 | 2 |
| 4 | Lewis | Landmark | Actively selling | $595,990 | 221 | 2,692 | 4 / 2.5 | 1 |
| 5 | Sinclair | Landmark | Actively selling | $586,990 | 236 | 2,487 | 4 / 2.5 | 1 |
| 6 | Burnham | Venture | Future release / shown active in page data | $538,990 | 211 | 2,553 | 4 / 2.5 | 0 |
| 7 | Markham | Venture | Future release / shown active in page data | $521,990 | 223 | 2,342 | 4 / 2.5 | 0 |
| 8 | Davis | Venture | Actively selling | $511,990 | 198 | 2,582 | 5 / 3 | 1 |
| 9 | Berkley | Venture | Actively selling | $504,990 | 202 | 2,498 | 4 / 2.5 | 2 |
| 10 | Marquette | Venture | Actively selling | $488,990 | 209 | 2,342 | 4 / 2.5 | 3 |
This is the detail layer for the current counter. It separates Lennar/listing marketing facts from county-record facts. Where sources conflict, I marked it instead of smoothing it over. That matters because Lennar can use fuzzy bedroom/bath/option language to justify a premium.
| House | Status / source role | Price / close | Plot + location | Size | Bed / bath | Basement | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2482 Rock Elm Rd | Active target, homesite #2503 | Counter $639,345 listed $685,345 | Rock Elm side, approx. 8,276 sf lot per Zillow. Lennar/Zillow market it as wooded/private views. Walkout basement. | 2,786 finished above grade; 4,201 total structure area; 1,415 foundation area. | 4 bed / 3 full + 1 half. Primary 15x15. Three secondary upstairs bedrooms. Main-level study, not guest suite. | Unfinished walkout. This is the biggest real plot/layout differentiator versus 2660. | Better lot story, but not $70K better without credits/protections. Counter is only $23,875 over 2660's current ask, but still above the $630K recorded McKinley comp. |
| 2660 Aspen Dr | Active same-plan value anchor, homesite #2404 | $615,470 cut from $677,870 | Aspen side, approx. 8,276 sf lot. Move-in ready. Marketed with wooded/privacy language. Not described as walkout. | 2,786 finished above grade; 4,201 total structure area; 1,415 foundation area. | source conflict Lennar header says 4 bed / 3 full + 1 half. Zillow says 5 bed / 4 bath and lists a main-level Bedroom 5 / guest suite. | Full unfinished basement / storage. No walkout claim found. | This is the strongest pressure point: same McKinley, same listed sf, now $69,875 below 2482's original list and $23,875 below Lennar's counter on 2482. |
| 2548 Aspen Ct | Sold McKinley, listing comp | $659,000 Zillow comp / $669,712 Homes closed display Dec 31, 2025 Homes; Jan 2026 in MLS/Zillow comp context | Aspen Ct cul-de-sac / court setting. Homes page says 0 sf lot, so verify parcel. Marketing says lookout basement and nature-filled setting. | 2,956 sf, larger than standard McKinley due to morning room / expansion. | 5 bed / 4 full baths. Main-level guest suite + private office + formal dining + breakfast + morning room. | Unfinished lookout basement. | Do not treat this as equal to 2482. It appears larger and optioned differently. It supports Lennar's average, but also proves option/lot detail matters. |
| 2675 Aspen Dr | Recent recorded McKinley comp | $630,000 Scott County sale date Apr 3, 2026 | 0.32 acres per Scott County. Arbor Bluff Second Addition, Lot 007 Block 002. North/east Aspen side of active cluster. | 2,791 AGLA per county; 1,376 unfinished basement; 668 garage sf. | source conflict County says 5 bed / 3.75 bath. Some listing references show 4 bed / 3 bath. | Unfinished basement. No walkout/lookout claim verified in source pull. | Best recorded buyer-side anchor. If 2482's only material premium is walkout/wooded lot, that premium needs a hard dollar value and contract protection. |
| 2728 Aspen Dr | Older McKinley sale, outside 6-month window | $649,990 Scott County sale date May 30, 2025 | 0.25 deeded / 0.314 GIS acres. Arbor Bluff, Lot 005 Block 003. Very close to the Rock Elm/Aspen active cluster. | 2,866 AGLA per county; Zillow/Lennar display 2,786 sf. 1,422 unfinished basement; 680 garage sf. | source conflict Zillow facts say 4 bed / 4 bath; description says guest suite + office; county says 4 bed / 3.5 bath. | Unfinished basement. No verified walkout/lookout claim in source pull. | Useful as the third-sale average math, but stale. It should be a ceiling/reference, not the anchor for a July 2026 weekend-deadline counter. |
This came up in search around Aspen Ct, but Zillow/Redfin identify it as the Itasca plan, not McKinley. Do not let it into a McKinley average. It is useful only as larger-plan context, because it has 3,078 sf, loft, main-level guest suite, study, and lookout lower level.
Also ask Lennar to confirm, in writing, for 2482 and 2660: exact legal bedroom/bath count, whether each basement is walkout/lookout/full, homesite orientation, included structural options, window package, and any known grading/drainage/window/water-intrusion service history.
Old map UX rebuilt with the current live Lennar pull, move-in dates, floorplans, price cuts, county sale comps, and negotiation notes. Price pins are active listings; sold comps are smaller context markers.
These rows are inside Arbor Bluff based on Scott County plat/community labeling. Filtered to Arbor Bluff, single-family, built 2024+, 2,600-3,250 finished above-grade sqft, sale price $500K-$750K. Sale qualifier Q is stronger arm's-length evidence. U is shown but discounted.
| Address | Floorplan | Dist | Year | Finished sf | Sale date | Price | $/sf | Sale qual. | Strategic note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2748 ASPEN DR Shakopee, MN 55379 | Lewis | 0.01 mi | 2024 | 2,692 | 09/18/2025 | $586,050 | 218 | U | near target |
| 2728 ASPEN DR Shakopee, MN 55379 | McKinley | 0.03 mi | 2024 | 2,866 | 05/30/2025 | $649,990 | 227 | U | seller-side |
| 2389 ROCK ELM RD Shakopee, MN 55379 | Burnham | 0.05 mi | 2025 | 2,628 | 12/15/2025 | $691,133 | 263 | U | seller-side |
| 2409 ROCK ELM RD Shakopee, MN 55379 | Burnham | 0.04 mi | 2025 | 2,628 | 04/16/2026 | $579,279 | 220 | U | buyer-side; recent Burnham comp |
| 2377 ROCK ELM RD Shakopee, MN 55379 | Burnham | 0.06 mi | 2025 | 2,628 | 01/30/2026 | $545,000 | 207 | Q | buyer-side |
| 2352 ROCK ELM RD Shakopee, MN 55379 | Burnham | 0.06 mi | 2025 | 2,628 | 12/23/2025 | $535,000 | 204 | U | buyer-side |
| 2341 ROCK ELM RD Shakopee, MN 55379 | Burnham | 0.08 mi | 2025 | 2,628 | 01/12/2026 | $580,000 | 221 | Q | buyer-side |
| 2328 ROCK ELM RD Shakopee, MN 55379 | Burnham | 0.08 mi | 2025 | 2,628 | 11/12/2025 | $563,256 | 214 | U | buyer-side |
| 2734 GREEN ASH AVE Shakopee, MN 55379 | Berkley | 0.11 mi | 2024 | 2,648 | 08/20/2025 | $518,440 | 196 | U | buyer-side |
| 2675 ASPEN DR Shakopee, MN 55379 | McKinley | 0.12 mi | 2025 | 2,791 | 04/03/2026 | $630,000 | 226 | U | seller-side |
| 2657 ASPEN DR Shakopee, MN 55379 | Lewis | 0.13 mi | 2025 | 2,712 | 12/12/2025 | $605,900 | 223 | U | seller-side |
| 2710 GREEN ASH AVE Shakopee, MN 55379 | Berkley | 0.14 mi | 2024 | 2,648 | 06/20/2025 | $510,000 | 193 | U | buyer-side |
| 2576 ASPEN CT Shakopee, MN 55379 | Itasca | 0.18 mi | 2025 | 3,230 | 02/12/2026 | $714,115 | 221 | Q | seller-side |
| 2563 ASPEN CT Shakopee, MN 55379 | Lewis | 0.20 mi | 2025 | 2,712 | 03/12/2026 | $615,000 | 227 | U | seller-side |
Important: Scott County exposes the U/Q sale qualifier, but not a plain-English reason for each U flag in this layer. For new-construction comps, U usually means "do not treat as a clean arms-length resale without backup." It can still be useful when supported by Lennar homesite data, floorplan, lot size, and nearby sale pattern.
| Address | Plan | Sale date | Sale price | AGLA sf | $/sf | Lot | Bed/Bath | Use in negotiation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2748 Aspen Dr | Lewis | 09/18/2025 | $586,050 | 2,692 | $218 | 0.21 ac | 4 / 2.5 | near target, good same-plan-ish reference but county says U |
| 2728 Aspen Dr | McKinley | 05/30/2025 | $649,990 | 2,866 | $227 | 0.25 ac | 4 / 3.5 | higher-price McKinley, useful ceiling not anchor |
| 2389 Rock Elm Rd | Burnham | 12/15/2025 | $691,133 | 2,628 | $263 | 0.18 ac | 4 / 2.25 | high outlier, discount heavily |
| 2409 Rock Elm Rd | Burnham | 04/16/2026 | $579,279 | 2,628 | $220 | 0.19 ac | 4 / 2.25 | recent Burnham, stronger than most U rows despite U flag |
| 2352 Rock Elm Rd | Burnham | 12/23/2025 | $535,000 | 2,628 | $204 | 0.16 ac | 4 / 2.25 | low Burnham, buyer-side pressure |
| 2328 Rock Elm Rd | Burnham | 11/12/2025 | $563,256 | 2,628 | $214 | 0.16 ac | 4 / 2.25 | low/mid Burnham, buyer-side pressure |
| 2734 Green Ash Ave | Berkley | 08/20/2025 | $518,440 | 2,648 | $196 | 0.39 ac | 4 / 2.25 | Venture collection, useful affordability context |
| 2675 Aspen Dr | McKinley | 04/03/2026 | $630,000 | 2,791 | $226 | 0.32 ac | 5 / 3.75 | recent McKinley, relevant for Landmark but not cheap |
| 2657 Aspen Dr | Lewis | 12/12/2025 | $605,900 | 2,712 | $223 | 0.33 ac | 4 / 2.5 | Lewis near 2450 size, useful ceiling/market reference |
| 2710 Green Ash Ave | Berkley | 06/20/2025 | $510,000 | 2,648 | $193 | 0.30 ac | 4 / 2.25 | Venture collection, buyer-side floor context |
| 2563 Aspen Ct | Lewis | 03/12/2026 | $615,000 | 2,712 | $227 | 0.23 ac | 4 / 2.5 | recent Lewis, useful same-plan ceiling |
This is not the same as “best house.” It ranks where Lennar likely has the most room to move based on same-plan pressure, visible price cuts, completion timing, $/sf outliers, and the Arbor Bluff comp cluster.
| Rank | Address | Plan | Why it has wiggle | Best ask | Pressure line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2482 Rock Elm Road | McKinley | $685K / $246 sf while active 2660 Aspen is same plan at $615K and recent recorded McKinley sale at 2675 Aspen was $630K. | $45K-$70K net value, either price cut or credits/rate/add-ons. | “Same plan is available/closed near the low $630s. Help us understand the premium here.” |
| 2 | 2469 Rock Elm Road | Sinclair | $269 sf is the biggest active $/sf outlier. Under construction with Aug. timing, no visible cut yet. | $40K-$70K+ ask if you actually like the lot, mostly through credits/rate/add-ons if they resist price. | “This is priced far above the Arbor Bluff cluster on a $/sf basis.” |
| 3 | 2660 Aspen Drive | McKinley | Move-in ready, May completion date, already $62.4K cut. Still enough room because stale spec inventory is expensive for them. | $20K-$35K more value on top of current price, especially closing costs/rate/appliances/blinds/fence. | “This has been ready. We can solve carrying cost if the net package is strong.” |
| 4 | 2450 Rock Elm Road | Lewis | $71K cut proves flexibility; near-term close leverage. But plot is not preferred, so use mainly as comp leverage. | If pursuing anyway: $20K-$40K more net value. Otherwise use it to pressure better lots. | “This cut tells us Lennar is already adjusting. Apply that same net logic to the home we prefer.” |
| 5 | 2307 Williams St / 2541 Green Ash Ave | Marquette | Same plan pressure from 2565 Green Ash at $498,737 after a $16.4K cut. These are $16K-$22K higher. | Match 2565 pricing or give equivalent credits/upgrades. | “Why pay more for the same Marquette when 2565 is already discounted?” |
| 6 | 2304 Williams St | Berkley | Same plan pressure from move-in-ready 2590 Green Ash at $519,697, plus Berkley sold comps down near $510K-$518K. | $15K-$30K value package, or match 2590 and add lender/inclusion support. | “The Berkley data clusters closer to low $500s.” |
This is the practical playbook: pick the floorplan/lot first, then use the right comp pressure. Same-plan pressure beats general Lennar-is-negotiable arguments.
| Plan | Best active target | Leverage pieces | Strategy if this is the plan you want |
|---|---|---|---|
| McKinley | 2482 Rock Elm if lot is best; 2660 Aspen if value matters | 2660 Aspen is $69,875 cheaper than 2482. 2675 Aspen sold at $630K. 2660 already cut $62.4K and is move-in ready. | Use 2660 and 2675 as anchors. For 2482, ask $45K-$70K net value. For 2660, push $20K-$35K in credits/rate/add-ons. |
| Sinclair | 2469 Rock Elm | Cheapest Landmark base plan, but highest active $/sf at $269/sf. No visible cut yet. | Best pure negotiation target. Lead with price pressure, then accept credits/rate/add-ons only if total value is large enough. |
| Lewis | 2450 only if plot issue is compensated; otherwise use Lewis comps as leverage | 2450 cut $71K. Lewis comps sit around $586K-$615K. 2450 plot is not preferred. | Do not chase a bad plot. If you want Lewis, ask for extra compensation for the lot or use 2450 to pressure better property choices. |
| Washburn | 2694 Aspen over 2481 Rock Elm unless 2481 has a meaningfully better lot | Same plan, 2694 is $9,880 cheaper and move-in ready sooner. Both are premium/large homes. | Use 2694 as the Washburn anchor. If pursuing 2481, demand price match/beat plus concessions. |
| Itasca | 2529 Rock Elm | Only active Itasca. Price is close to larger Washburn options, so cross-plan substitution is the leverage. | Ask why a smaller Itasca sits near Washburn pricing. Push $20K-$40K net value, especially if it stays unsold into late summer. |
| Marquette | 2565 Green Ash for value; 2307 or 2541 only if lot is better | 2565 is $498,737 after a cut. 2541 is $16.7K higher. 2307 is $21.6K higher. Same plan pressure is clean. | Ask 2541/2307 to match 2565 or give the difference as credits/add-ons. If choosing 2565, ask smaller but still meaningful concessions. |
| Berkley | 2590 Green Ash for value; 2304 Williams only if lot is better | 2590 is move-in ready and $16.9K cheaper than 2304. Sold Berkley comps at $510K-$518K support low-$500s pressure. | For 2304, ask to match 2590 or give $15K-$30K net. For 2590, push add-ons/lender support since price is already closer. |
| Davis | 2312 Williams | Only active Davis, 5 bed / 3 bath. Fewer direct comps, so leverage comes from Venture alternatives. | If you need the 5th bedroom, push modestly: $10K-$25K. If not, compare against cheaper Berkley/Marquette options. |
Short version:
This section separates hard public-company evidence from buyer-anecdote evidence. The Reddit/forum examples are useful pattern recognition, but not proof unless we attach permalinks. Use them to shape asks, not as citations in an offer email.
For the property you actually prefer, ask for a net package first, not just list-price movement.
Lennar fiscal year ends Nov. 30. Quarter-end windows are Feb., May, Aug., and Nov., with the strongest closeout pressure typically Sept.-Nov.
Baseline: $10K-$15K. Normal slow market: $15K-$35K. Spec / stale / closeout: $35K-$50K+. Quarter-end or fiscal closeout: bigger packages have been documented.
No verbal promises. No “free” rate without total-cost math. No waiver of inspection/attorney review. No paying up for a worse plot just because the discount headline is loud.